While the probability of the Merge failing is relatively low, ether’s price could drop after the upgrade for two reasons. Firstly, ether has gained nearly 55% in the two months leading up to the Merge in a classic “buy-the-rumor” type move. So some profit taking may be seen after the Merge. Further, ether may not immediately become a deflationary currency with depreciating supply after the Merge, disappointing those positioned for the supposedly-bullish effect to kick in right away.
